Landscape-scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest.

Increasing aridity is a challenge for forest managers and reducing stand density to minimize competition is a recognized strategy to mitigate drought impacts on growth. In many dry forests, the most widespread and common forest management programs currently being implemented focus on restoration of historical stand structures, primarily to minimize fire risk and enhance watershed function. The implications of these restoration projects for drought vulnerability are not well understood. Here, we examined how planned restoration treatments in the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, the largest forest restoration project in the United States, would alter landscape-scale patterns of forest growth and drought vulnerability throughout the 21st century. Using drought-growth relationships developed within the landscape, we considered a suite of climate and treatment scenarios and estimated average forest growth and the proportion of years with extremely low growth as a measure of vulnerability to long-term decline. Climatic shifts projected for this landscape include higher temperatures and shifting seasonal precipitation that promotes lower soil moisture availability in the early growing season and greater hot-dry stress, conditions negatively associated with tree growth. However, drought severity and the magnitude of future growth declines were moderated by the thinning treatments. Compared to historical conditions, proportional growth in mid-century declines by ~40% if thinning ceases or continues at the status quo pace. By comparison, proportional growth declines by only 20% if the Four Forest Restoration Initiative treatments are fully implemented, and <10% if stands are thinned even more intensively than currently planned. Furthermore, restoration treatments resulted in dramatically fewer years with extremely low growth in the future, a recognized precursor to forest decline and eventual tree mortality. Benefits from density reduction for mitigating drought-induced growth declines are more apparent in mid-century and under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 at the end of the century. Future climate is inherently uncertain, and our results only reflect the climate projections from the representative suite of models examined. Nevertheless, these results indicate that forest restoration projects designed for other objectives also have substantial benefits for minimizing future drought vulnerability in dry forests and provide additional incentive to accelerate the pace of restoration.

Effects of dwarf mistletoe on stand structure of lodgepole pine forests 21-28 years post-mountain pine beetle epidemic in central Oregon.

Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests are widely distributed throughout North America and are subject to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) epidemics, which have caused mortality over millions of hectares of mature trees in recent decades. Mountain pine beetle is known to influence stand structure, and has the ability to impact many forest processes. Dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium americanum) also influences stand structure and occurs frequently in post-mountain pine beetle epidemic lodgepole pine forests. Few studies have incorporated both disturbances simultaneously although they co-occur frequently on the landscape. The aim of this study is to investigate the stand structure of lodgepole pine forests 21-28 years after a mountain pine beetle epidemic with varying levels of dwarf mistletoe infection in the Deschutes National Forest in central Oregon. We compared stand density, stand basal area, canopy volume, proportion of the stand in dominant/codominant, intermediate, and suppressed cohorts, average height and average diameter of each cohort, across the range of dwarf mistletoe ratings to address differences in stand structure. We found strong evidence of a decrease in canopy volume, suppressed cohort height, and dominant/codominant cohort diameter with increasing stand-level dwarf mistletoe rating. There was strong evidence that as dwarf mistletoe rating increases, proportion of the stand in the dominant/codominant cohort decreases while proportion of the stand in the suppressed cohort increases. Structural differences associated with variable dwarf mistletoe severity create heterogeneity in this forest type and may have a significant influence on stand productivity and the resistance and resilience of these stands to future biotic and abiotic disturbances. Our findings show that it is imperative to incorporate dwarf mistletoe when studying stand productivity and ecosystem recovery processes in lodgepole pine forests because of its potential to influence stand structure.